The second quarter of 2026 was the mirror image of the first: risk appetite came roaring back on Wall Street, and the dirt kept doing what dirt does. The S&P 500 returned +14.9% — its best quarter since 2020 — as the Middle East oil shock unwound, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50–3.75%, and the cattle complex printed fresh records.
Across our five-county footprint, qualified raw-land closings of 30 acres or more traded at a median of $4,742 per acre, a blended $4,425 per acre across 1,548.6 acres, and $6.85 million in total volume over 20 qualifying sales — and every county in the footprint recorded at least one closing.
Every qualified sale, the charts, and full methodology & sources.
What we measure — and what we leave out
The number that matters most here is simple: what is bare ground actually trading for? This dataset includes only second-quarter closed MLS sales in the Farm and Land & Lots categories of 30 acres or larger, screened to listings reporting zero bedrooms and zero bathrooms (a blank bedroom or bathroom field treated as zero) — the same objective screen behind our Bare Dirt Report series. Screening out the residential premium isolates the price of the dirt itself, as nearly as the MLS record allows. Being MLS-based, it does not capture private, off-market, or family-transfer sales. We lead with the median rather than the $5,398 unweighted average, because outlier development-influenced tracts can pull the average upward and misrepresent what a typical recreational or grazing buyer experiences.
Local values by county
| County | Sales | Closed Volume | Acres | Blended $/Acre |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin | 6 | $3,016,000 | 372.4 | $8,098 |
| Gasconade | 3 | $857,000 | 151.6 | $5,652 |
| Crawford | 2 | $800,000 | 288.9 | $2,769 |
| Phelps | 5 | $1,184,000 | 304.0 | $3,895 |
| Dent | 4 | $995,000 | 431.6 | $2,305 |
| Total | 20 | $6,852,000 | 1,548.6 | $4,425 |
All five footprint counties recorded a qualifying closing this quarter, but sample sizes remain small — treat county figures as directional. Franklin’s six sales include St. Louis-exurb–influenced tracts (Pacific, Sullivan, New Haven) that lift its blended figure above $8,000/acre — read it alongside the footprint median, not alone. Crawford’s and Dent’s blends are each pulled down by one large block — 257 acres near Steelville at roughly $2,721/acre and 320 acres near Edgar Springs at roughly $2,031/acre — the size discount at work, not county weakness.
The size story is the one buyers ask about most, and this quarter drew it plainly: the 30–50 acre band blended $5,698/acre, the 50–100 band $6,005/acre, and the quarter’s biggest tract — 320 acres in Dent County — closed at just $2,031/acre. The rule of thumb holds: pay up per acre for a buildable 30–50, expect a discount per acre when you buy size.
The forces behind the price
Capital markets and rates
Q2 delivered the opposite tape from Q1: the S&P 500 returned +14.9%, the Nasdaq +21.4%, and the Dow +13% — the strongest quarter for the broad indexes since 2020 — as oil fell back to pre-shock levels and AI-driven earnings carried the tech complex. A violent round trip in six months is exactly the kind of whiplash that keeps a share of family wealth parked in things you can shoot deer and raise cattle on. The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% at both spring meetings, but its June projections erased the cut once penciled in for 2026 — a hike is now potentially on the table. With the 10-year Treasury easing to roughly 4.4% and the 30-year mortgage steady near 6.49%, financing is elevated but predictable. Plan on today’s money, not cheaper money.
Farmland: a plateau, not a peak
The Chicago Fed’s May 2026 AgLetter put Seventh-District farmland values up about 3% year-over-year, even as “good” farmland slipped roughly 1% from the prior quarter and district cash rents fell for a second straight year. For Missouri, USDA’s most recent Land Values summary pegged 2025 cropland near $5,150/acre (+4.9%); the 2026 update lands in August. The speculative froth is off, but there’s no distress — well-located grass and recreational ground remain firmly bid.
Cattle: the engine under Ozarks grass
The CME feeder cattle index pushed into record territory, touching $381.86/cwt on June 24, and at the Joplin Regional Stockyards, 500–600 lb steers brought $455–$540/cwt in mid-June. Behind the price: the U.S. herd began 2026 at 86.2 million head — a 75-year low — with beef cows at their lowest count since 1961, and heifer retention ticked up for the first time since 2017, the earliest hint of a rebuild. Record calf checks underwrite many of the acres of Ozarks grass; around here, the price of a ribeye is often more relevant than what a bushel of corn brings.
Timber: oak anchors woodland value
The most current published read remains the Missouri Department of Conservation’s Timber Price Trends for January–March 2026 (the April–June update had not been released at press time). Oak sawlog stumpage in the Southern region averaged about $246 per MBF for mixed oak (International ¼-inch scale), with top sales near $328/MBF. White oak still commands its specialty premium: statewide, white oak stave logs — the bourbon-barrel trade — averaged near $1,655/MBF. A managed oak stand is real latent value that never shows up on a tax card.
What it means for you
If you’re selling, the tailwinds strengthened this quarter: record cattle prices and a rebounding stock market putting gains in buyers’ pockets. The bid remains strongest for well-located, accessible 30–50 acre tracts with frontage, water, a building site, or a marketable oak stand — that’s where per-acre prices peak. Price to the comparable, not the outlier: single sales set the county headline in Franklin and Crawford this quarter.
If you’re buying, size still buys the biggest discount in the market — this quarter’s largest block closed at less than half the median on a per-acre basis. Financing is steady, but the Fed’s June projections took the 2026 cut off the table; don’t underwrite a deal that only works with cheaper money. The clearest value plays remain large grazing and recreational tracts where record cattle prices and standing oak underwrite the carrying cost.
Our base case into Q3 is a steady, fundamentally supported Ozarks market — more transactions than last quarter, a firmer median, and no crack in the foundation. We’ll be watching whether the Fed’s hike talk softens through the July and September meetings, USDA’s August land-values update, MDC’s next oak stumpage release, and the cattle complex through the summer video-sale season.
Curious what your own ground is worth? Request a free, no-obligation valuation, or get in touch. You can also download the full report (PDF) — every qualified sale, the charts, and full methodology & sources.
Prepared by Justin Head — Whitetail Properties Land Specialist / Missouri Attorney. 573.308.7376 · justin.head@whitetailproperties.com
This report is compiled from sources believed reliable and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax, or financial advice. Land values vary widely by location, access, improvements, and timing; figures reflect a limited quarterly sample and should not be relied upon as an appraisal.
Sources & Methodology
This report is built from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) closed-sale records for the second quarter of 2026, limited to the Farm and Land & Lots categories at 30 acres or larger , screened to listings reporting zero bedrooms and zero bathrooms, with blank bedroom or bathroom fields treated as zero. This screen is intended to isolate bare-land pricing but does not independently verify the absence of every structure or improvement. Figures reflect 20 qualifying sales across Franklin, Gasconade, Crawford, Phelps, and Dent Counties — all five footprint counties recorded at least one qualifying sale. MLS-based data does not capture private, off-market, or family-transfer sales. Compiled by Justin Head and Ryan Record, Ozarks Land Report / Whitetail Properties Real Estate. Data current as of Q2 2026 (April 1 – June 30, 2026).
Revised August 2026: the dataset behind this report was updated after we identified Farm-category MLS closings omitted from the original pull. Figures on this page and in the PDF now reflect all 20 qualifying sales.