The first quarter of 2026 told a story of resilient dirt in a jittery world. While the S&P 500 slid −4.3% on a Middle East oil shock and the Federal Reserve held rates at a 3.50–3.75% floor, the fundamentals that move Ozarks land kept their footing.
Across our five-county footprint, qualified raw-land closings of 30 acres or more traded at a median of $4,142 per acre, a blended $5,416 per acre across 827.3 acres, and $4.48 million in total volume over 11 qualifying sales.
Every qualified sale, the charts, and full methodology & sources.
What we measure — and what we leave out
The number that matters most here is simple: what is bare ground actually trading for? This dataset includes only first-quarter closed MLS sales in the Farm and Land & Lots categories of 30 acres or larger, refined to parcels carrying no infrastructure or outbuildings — no residence, shop, barn, or other improvements. Stripping out the house and the residential premium leaves the price of the dirt itself. Being MLS-based, it does not capture private, off-market, or family-transfer sales. We lead with the median rather than the $5,487 unweighted average, because a single development-influenced tract can pull the average upward and misrepresent what a typical recreational or grazing buyer experiences.
Local values by county
| County | Sales | Closed Volume | Acres | Blended $/Acre |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin | 2 | $1,521,000 | 116.0 | $13,114 |
| Gasconade | 2 | $900,000 | 138.8 | $6,486 |
| Crawford | 4 | $936,434 | 259.6 | $3,607 |
| Phelps | 3 | $1,123,278 | 313.0 | $3,589 |
| Total | 11 | $4,480,712 | 827.3 | $5,416 |
Dent County recorded no qualifying closings this quarter, and sample sizes are small — treat county figures as directional. Franklin in particular reflects just two sales and is pulled up sharply by a single St. Louis–exurb tract (Villa Ridge, $14,605/acre); read it as an outlier, not a county-wide level.
The size story is the one buyers ask about most. In general, smaller, more accessible tracts often command a per-acre premium, while larger blocks tend to sell at a lower blended cost per acre. The large-block discount still shows up in this quarter’s data: the 100+ acre band blended $4,519/acre, and the quarter’s biggest tract — 200 acres near Edgar Springs — closed at just $3,488/acre. The rule of thumb holds: pay up per acre for a buildable 30–50, expect a discount per acre when you buy size.
The forces behind the price
Capital markets and rates
Land is a borrowed-money asset, so the rate sheet matters as much as the soil map. The Fed’s pause removed one source of upward pressure at the short end of the curve, but land-loan pricing still depends heavily on Treasury yields, lender spreads, borrower quality, and Farm Credit conditions. With the 10-year holding in the mid-4% range, financing is elevated but stable — and a stable rate is what lets a buyer underwrite a purchase with confidence. The 30-year mortgage’s drift back toward 6.4% matters most for the rural-residential and cabin-tract buyer.
Farmland: a plateau, not a peak
The Chicago Fed reported Seventh-District farmland values up about 3% year-over-year in Q1, even as “good” farmland slipped roughly 1% from the prior quarter. For Missouri, USDA pegged 2025 cropland near $5,150/acre (+4.9%), and the University of Missouri’s grower survey put average non-irrigated cropland near $7,129/acre. The speculative froth is off, but there’s no distress — well-located grass and recreational ground remain firmly bid.
Cattle: the engine under Ozarks grass
The CME cattle complex pushed toward all-time highs entering spring. At the Joplin Regional Stockyards, lightweight feeder steers brought the high-$600s per hundredweight in late March, with prices easing for heavier classes. With the U.S. herd at multi-decade lows, record calf checks make every acre of productive grass more valuable to hold and more expensive to buy.
Timber: oak anchors woodland value
Per the Missouri Department of Conservation’s Timber Price Trends for January–March 2026, oak sawlog stumpage in the Southern region averaged about $246 per MBF for mixed oak (International ¼-inch scale), the quarter’s most heavily traded oak category, with top sales near $328/MBF. White oak also commands a specialty premium: elsewhere in Missouri, white oak stave logs — the bourbon-barrel trade — averaged near $1,655/MBF. A managed oak stand is real latent value that never shows up on a tax card.
What it means for you
If you’re selling, the bid for well-located, accessible 30–50 acre tracts remains one of the strongest parts of the market — that’s where per-acre prices tend to peak. Frontage, a building site, water, and a marketable timber stand are the features that pull prices above the median. Price to the comparable, not the outlier.
If you’re buying, size still buys a discount, and the clearest value plays are large grazing and recreational tracts where strong cattle prices and standing timber help underwrite the carrying cost. A stable Fed and a mid-4% 10-year mean financing is predictable, if not cheap.
Our base case into Q2 is a steady, fundamentally supported Ozarks market — less frothy than 2021–22, but with no crack in the foundation.
Curious what your own ground is worth? Request a free, no-obligation valuation, or get in touch. You can also download the full report (PDF) — whether you’re buying or selling in Franklin, Gasconade, Crawford, Phelps, or Dent County.
Prepared by Justin Head — Whitetail Properties Land Specialist / Missouri Attorney. 573.308.7376 · justin.head@whitetailproperties.com
This report is compiled from sources believed reliable and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax, or financial advice. Land values vary widely by location, access, improvements, and timing; figures reflect a limited quarterly sample and should not be relied upon as an appraisal.
Sources & Methodology
This report is built from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) closed-sale records for the first quarter of 2026, limited to the Farm and Land & Lots categories at 30 acres or larger with no residence or other improvements — bare ground only. Figures reflect 11 qualifying sales across Franklin, Gasconade, Crawford, and Phelps Counties; Dent County recorded no qualifying bare-ground MLS sales in Q1 2026. MLS-based data does not capture private, off-market, or family-transfer sales. Compiled by Justin Head and Ryan Record, Ozarks Land Report / Whitetail Properties Real Estate. Data current as of Q1 2026 (January 1 – March 31, 2026).